We love visions: major technological leaps, new markets, new possibilities – from the space economy to longevity. These kinds of "moonshots" that regularly make the headlines are fascinating and inspiring – and they will indeed shape parts of our future.
Still, a sober counterpoint is worth making: as attractive as this future music sounds, as a society and as investors we should first invest in what prevents us from undermining our own foundations. Because without stable ecological and physical conditions, every high-tech story eventually becomes secondary.
What good is longevity if the planet is no longer livable?
1) Moonshots require a functioning "Planet Operating System"
Radical bets on the future assume that we have time, energy, stable infrastructure, and social stability. Yet this is exactly where today’s greatest risks lie: climate, resources, extreme weather, water availability, biodiversity. If this foundation falters, costs, uncertainty, and conflict potential rise – and with them the risk to everything that lies "far out" in the future.
2) The "unspectacular" innovations are the prerequisite for everything else
When prioritising today, one quickly ends up with innovations that may be less glamorous but are systemically essential:
- Green tech & energy efficiency: renewables, storage solutions, building renovation, industrial efficiency
- Decarbonisation: electrification of processes, clean heat, industrial transformation
- Resilience & climate adaptation: water, agriculture, infrastructure, disaster preparedness
- Resource efficiency: circular economy, recycling, material substitution
These are not "nice to have" sectors – they are drivers of stability and productivity, with real demand and strong structural tailwinds.
3) A pragmatic investment logic: core first, visions as satellites
You can have both – future ambition and responsibility – if you weight them properly:
- Core: focus on climate, energy, and resilience solutions that measurably reduce risk and can scale.
- Satellites: a limited allocation to frontier bets such as space or longevity – with the expectation that many will take a long time and not all will succeed..
This keeps you progressive without being driven by narratives alone.
Conclusion
Thinking about the future is important. But order matters: first, invest in technologies that stabilise our foundations of life. Then future visions are not only exciting – they also rest on solid ground.