{"id":9722,"date":"2026-10-15T10:22:55","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T08:22:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bicon.li\/?p=9722"},"modified":"2026-10-16T13:25:37","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T11:25:37","slug":"from-assumptions-to-better-investment-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bicon.li\/en\/2026\/10\/15\/from-assumptions-to-better-investment-decisions\/","title":{"rendered":"From Assumptions to Better Investment Decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why transparency in capital market assumptions matters \u2013 and how the <a href=\"https:\/\/about.bicon.co\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"about.bicon.co\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Investment Decision Lab<\/a> makes them understandable and customisable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every investment portfolio starts with assumptions. Expected returns, volatility, inflation, interest rates and currency movements all influence how a portfolio is constructed and how its future performance is assessed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet in many investment tools, these assumptions remain something of a black box.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the Investment Decision Lab, I wanted to take a different approach: make the assumptions visible, explainable and fully customisable.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where do expected returns actually come from?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rather than simply assuming that US equities will return 7.3% annually over the long term, we break the assumption into its economic building blocks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dividend yields and share buybacks<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Real earnings growth<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Long-term inflation<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Expected valuation changes<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The framework draws on historical market evidence and research from institutions such as J.P. Morgan, BlackRock, Vanguard and AQR, combined with our own long-term assumptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For bonds, real estate, gold and other asset classes, we use different building blocks appropriate to their economic characteristics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The objective isn't to predict the future with false precision. It's to make the reasoning behind every assumption understandable and open to challenge.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Swiss investor sees a different world<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A 7.3% expected return on US equities in USD is not necessarily a 7.3% return for a Swiss investor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our model applies long-term inflation differentials using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) to estimate unhedged currency effects. In this example, that translates into an approximate 5.8% annual return in CHF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Currency-hedged investments are treated differently, using interest-rate differentials to approximate hedging costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These are modelling assumptions, not exchange-rate forecasts \u2013 and actual outcomes can differ substantially.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Your assumptions. Your investment process. Your benchmark.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most important principle is that our house view should never be the only view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Users can customise capital market assumptions, inflation, risk-free rates, asset allocation rules, regional preferences, ETF selection and concentration limits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These choices flow through portfolio construction, risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulations and investment explanations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This creates a consistent, transparent investment process \u2013 tailored to the investor's own philosophy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The real question<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nobody knows whether US equities will return 5%, 7% or 9% over the next decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But we should at least know why our model expects a particular return \u2013 and how our investment decisions change when those assumptions turn out to be wrong.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That's where meaningful portfolio analysis begins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Explore the Investment Decision Lab:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83c\udf10 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bicon.co\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">www.bicon.co<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2699\ufe0f <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bicon.co\/?tab=methodology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Customise your investment process<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Note: The return figures are illustrative long-term modelling assumptions, not guaranteed outcomes or investment recommendations. The components shown in the title graphic are illustrative decompositions rather than independently verified market estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Why transparency in capital market assumptions matters \u2013 and how ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more-container\"><a title=\"From Assumptions to Better Investment Decisions\" class=\"read-more button\" href=\"https:\/\/bicon.li\/en\/2026\/10\/15\/from-assumptions-to-better-investment-decisions\/#more-9722\" aria-label=\"Read more about From Assumptions to Better Investment Decisions\">Read Article<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9724,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","ub_ctt_via":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","generate_page_header":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[13,14,50,32,12,18,21,22],"tags":[31,74],"class_list":["post-9722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-assetmanagement","category-clientmanagement","category-democratising-investing","category-digitaltransformation","category-fintech","category-performance","category-robo-advising","category-wealthmanagement","tag-english","tag-investment-decision-lab","infinite-scroll-item","masonry-post","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50","no-featured-image-padding"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bicon.li\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Investement-Process.IIpng_.png?fit=1774%2C887&ssl=1","author_info":{"display_name":"Volkmar Ritter","author_link":"https:\/\/bicon.li\/en\/author\/wm\/"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>From Assumptions to Better Investment Decisions | BICon<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bicon.li\/en\/2026\/10\/15\/from-assumptions-to-better-investment-decisions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"From Assumptions to Better Investment Decisions | BICon\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Why transparency in capital market assumptions matters \u2013 and how ... 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