{"id":9705,"date":"2026-10-09T18:46:11","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T16:46:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bicon.li\/?p=9705"},"modified":"2026-10-09T18:48:19","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T16:48:19","slug":"historical-vs-expected-returns-the-best-of-three-worlds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bicon.li\/en\/2026\/10\/09\/historical-vs-expected-returns-the-best-of-three-worlds\/","title":{"rendered":"Historical vs. Expected Returns \u2013 The Best of Three Worlds?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Should investment decisions rely on historical performance or forward-looking expectations? Why not use both \u2013 and add a third perspective?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I've been asked several times why my <strong>BICon Investment Decision Lab<\/strong> uses forward-looking expected returns and volatilities rather than historical data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My reasoning: Historical returns don't necessarily predict future performance. But forecasts are equally uncertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With the latest update, the Investment Decision Lab now combines three perspectives:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Forward-looking expectations<\/strong> \u2013 Long-term return and volatility assumptions based on capital market expectations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Your own assumptions<\/strong> \u2013 Expected returns and volatilities are fully adjustable. My expectations don't have to be yours.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Historical performance<\/strong> \u2013 Actual annualised returns (CAGR) and volatilities calculated from up to 10 years of ETF market data via EODHD.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">One Switch \u2013 Three Important Applications<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Users can switch between forecast-based and historical assumptions to see how they influence three core components:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Portfolio construction<\/strong> \u2013 Asset allocation and Sharpe-ratio-based portfolio tilts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Monte Carlo simulations<\/strong> \u2013 Simulated portfolio outcomes and probability distributions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Risk &amp; performance metrics<\/strong> \u2013 Expected returns, volatility, Sharpe ratio and other risk indicators.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The interesting question is not necessarily which dataset is correct, but <strong>how sensitive investment decisions are to the underlying assumptions.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A portfolio that looks attractive under one set of assumptions might look very different under another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">From Black Box to Transparency<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Investment Decision Lab follows a deterministic, transparent approach. Users can inspect assumptions, modify them and understand their impact on investment outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The best of three worlds? Perhaps. But certainly a better way to challenge investment assumptions.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83c\udf10 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bicon.co\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"www.bicon.co\">Investment Decision Lab<\/a><br>\ud83c\udf10 <a href=\"https:\/\/about.bicon.co?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">About the platform<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Due to market-data licensing restrictions, the historical data feature is currently not available in the public version of the Investment Decision Lab.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Should investment decisions rely on historical performance or forward-looking expectations? ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more-container\"><a title=\"Historical vs. Expected Returns \u2013 The Best of Three Worlds?\" class=\"read-more button\" href=\"https:\/\/bicon.li\/en\/2026\/10\/09\/historical-vs-expected-returns-the-best-of-three-worlds\/#more-9705\" aria-label=\"Read more about Historical vs. Expected Returns \u2013 The Best of Three Worlds?\">Read Article<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9706,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","ub_ctt_via":"","advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","generate_page_header":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[13,50,18,73,22,35],"tags":[31,74],"class_list":["post-9705","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-assetmanagement","category-democratising-investing","category-performance","category-showcase-tools","category-wealthmanagement","category-wealthtech","tag-english","tag-investment-decision-lab","infinite-scroll-item","masonry-post","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50","no-featured-image-padding"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/bicon.li\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Historical-vs-Expected-Returns-Dashboard.png?fit=1523%2C1024&ssl=1","author_info":{"display_name":"Volkmar Ritter","author_link":"https:\/\/bicon.li\/en\/author\/wm\/"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Historical vs. Expected Returns \u2013 The Best of Three Worlds? | BICon<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bicon.li\/en\/2026\/10\/09\/historical-vs-expected-returns-the-best-of-three-worlds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Historical vs. Expected Returns \u2013 The Best of Three Worlds? | BICon\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Should investment decisions rely on historical performance or forward-looking expectations? ... 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